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Overvalued Housing Market? Depends Where You Live

Most Overvalued, Most Undervalued of the 317 Largest U.S. Metro Areas Examined

A new study, House Prices in America, using Global Insight's extensive proprietary databases on the housing market - which combined data and forecasts for home prices, home sales, housing stock, and household income with a methodology developed by the economics department of National City Corporation — examines current and expected housing prices in the 317 largest U.S. Metropolitan areas.

Study findings indicate that 71 metropolitan areas, representing 39 percent of the nation's housing market, "are extremely overvalued and at risk for a price correction." While price appreciation continues at a historically high rate - boosted by especially strong increases in markets that are already overvalued - the pace of appreciation is slowing.

The Global Insight Housing Price Index

This new index has been developed by our U.S. Regional Real Estate Service experts. Our U.S. Regional Real Estate Service is focused on delivering detailed analysis of demand-side drivers for the residential real estate market in each state and is updated quarterly.

Out-of-whack home prices

Metro areas' first quarter housing prices with the greatest percentage above and below what they should be:

Metro area	Average price	Over/under valued
Abilene, TX	$71,500	-9.2%
Akron, OH	$133,800	-1.9%
Albany, GA	$89,100	-2.9%
Albany, NY	$186,300	18.5%
Albuquerque, NM	$170,900	8.0%
Alexandria, LA	$83,400	-5.7%
Allentown, PA-NJ	$201,600	17.9%
Amarillo, TX	$88,200	-2.9%
Anchorage, AK	$228,400	22.2%
Anderson, IN	$93,200	-1.6%
Anderson, SC	$99,700	3.2%
Ann Arbor, MI	$216,100	12.8%
Appleton, WI	$137,700	-0.5%
Asheville, NC	$152,800	32.1%
Athens, GA	$139,500	1.2%
Atlanta, GA	$175,800	0.8%
Atlantic City, NJ	$254,200	63.9%
Augusta, GA-SC	$109,500	0.8%
Austin, TX	$149,900	-6.8%
Bakersfield, CA	$225,500	62.3%
Baltimore, MD	$272,600	31.7%
Barnstable, MA	$356,800	43.4%
Baton Rouge, LA	$115,600	3.2%
Battle Creek, MI	$104,200	18.6%
Bay City, MI	$107,200	22.9%
Beaumont, TX	$73,200	-7.3%
Bellingham, WA	$277,000	51.5%
Bend, OR	$276,100	76.4%
Bethesda, MD	$433,900	33.0%
Billings, MT	$142,000	8.3%
Binghamton, NY	$103,200	4.0%
Birmingham, AL	$120,800	-5.2%
Bismarck ND	$120,100	2.0%
Blacksburg, VA	$123,800	3.2%
Bloomington, IN	$120,600	-0.1%
Bloomington-Normal, IL	$131,900	-0.5%
Boise City, ID	$180,400	28.6%
Boston-Quincy, MA	$360,200	10.7%
Boulder, CO	$293,800	15.6%
Bowling Green, KY	$108,900	-2.5%
Bremerton, WA	$263,600	32.3%
Bridgeport, CT	$466,800	9.8%
Brunswick, GA	$122,500	16.5%
Buffalo, NY	$112,900	-5.9%
Burlington, NC	$110,600	-0.1%
Burlington, VT	$212,900	18.8%
Cambridge-Framingham, MA	$391,400	3.5%
Camden, NJ	$227,800	23.7%
Canton, OH	$117,400	6.0%
Cape Coral-Fort Meyers, FL	$245,500	63.0%
Carson City, NV	$291,300	45.6%
Casper, WY	$140,800	28.9%
Cedar Rapids, IA	$112,800	-1.7%
Champaign, IL	$117,800	11.0%
Charleston, SC	$168,200	31.2%
Charleston, WV	$89,700	-8.4%
Charlotte, NC-SC	$146,200	-4.6%
Charlottesville, VA	$244,700	29.0%
Chattanooga, TN-GA	$115,200	4.1%
Cheyenne, WY	$147,600	1.4%
Chicago, IL	$246,700	20.4%
Chico, CA	$271,100	60.7%
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN	$140,100	-3.1%
Cleveland, OH	$143,800	3.3%
College Station-Bryan, TX	$94,200	-23.7%
Colorado Springs, CO	$195,700	6.4%
Columbia, MO	$125,200	-5.8%
Columbia, SC	$117,300	0.1%
Columbus, GA-AL	$111,800	-2.4%
Columbus, IN	$119,000	-2.6%
Columbus, OH	$149,400	-0.4%
Corpus Christi, TX	$92,000	-7.7%
Corvallis, OR	$237,200	15.6%
Dallas, TX	$129,000	-18.9%
Dalton, GA	$107,200	1.8%
Davenport-Moline, IA-IL	$103,000	3.2%
Dayton, OH	$120,200	-2.0%
Decatur, AL	$91,400	-10.3%
Decatur, IL	$81,200	-5.6%
Deltona-Daytona Beach, FL	$186,000	53.6%
Denver, CO	$223,300	5.9%
Des Moines, IA	$127,500	-1.4%
Detroit, MI	$118,500	27.8%
Dover, DE	$174,000	26.4%
Dubuque, IA	$118,200	5.5%
Duluth, MN-WI	$123,500	27.2%
Durham, NC	$163,200	2.3%
Eau Claire, WI	$125,600	15.3%
Edison, NJ	$349,000	33.0%
El Paso, TX	$94,000	-13.1%
Elkhart, IN	$113,700	-8.1%
Erie, PA	$99,400	-0.4%
Essex County, MA	$346,000	24.0%
Eugene, OR	$214,400	41.6%
Evansville, IN-KY	$98,300	-5.1%
Fairbanks, AK	$180,700	11.1%
Fargo, ND-MN	$126,800	-0.6%
Farmington, NM	$123,800	22.5%
Fayetteville, AR-MO	$129,200	8.2%
Flagstaff, AZ	$248,800	42.0%
Flint, MI	$110,900	21.4%
Florence, SC	$82,800	-5.1%
Fond du Lac, WI	$133,300	8.7%
Fort Collins, CO	$220,500	9.6%
Fort Lauderdale, FL	$262,600	57.3%
Fort Smith, AR-OK	$80,400	-6.8%
Fort Walton Beach, FL	$214,800	38.8%
Fort Wayne, IN	$102,200	-5.9%
Fort Worth, TX	$105,500	-18.5%
Fresno, CA	$260,800	63.6%
Gainesville, FL	$157,200	26.7%
Gainesville, GA	$147,900	7.5%
Gary, IN	$131,300	5.4%
Grand Junction, CO	$171,400	27.8%
Grand Rapids, MI	$133,300	5.3%
Greeley, CO	$176,400	20.8%
Green Bay, WI	$144,300	6.3%
Greensboro-High Point, NC	$121,000	1.5%
Greenville, NC	$95,600	-3.1%
Greenville, SC	$114,100	-2.8%
Gulfport-Biloxi, MS	$112,900	34.4%
Hanford, CA	$212,800	38.6%
Harrisburg, PA	$146,500	3.1%
Harrisonburg, VA	$177,600	21.6%
Hartford, CT	$237,300	4.6%
Hattiesburg, MS	$90,200	2.7%
Hickory, NC	$102,900	8.3%
Holland, MI	$157,200	11.7%
Honolulu, HI	$585,300	39.2%
Houma, LA	$98,600	-5.1%
Houston, TX	$110,600	-15.8%
Huntsville, AL	$120,600	-10.4%
Idaho Falls, ID	$122,400	3.0%
Indianapolis, IN	$136,700	-8.6%
Iowa City, IA	$148,600	-3.2%
Ithaca, NY	$150,400	12.3%
Jackson, MI	$122,600	19.7%
Jackson, MS	$102,600	-3.6%
Jacksonville, FL	$179,000	31.4%
Janesville, WI	$126,700	19.5%
Jefferson City, MO	$111,300	-3.6%
Joplin, MO	$89,800	1.8%
Kalamazoo, MI	$129,200	10.6%
Kankakee, IL	$127,000	15.1%
Kansas City, MO-KS	$136,800	1.1%
Kennewick, WA	$142,600	9.2%
Killeen, TX	$93,000	-15.1%
Kingston, NY	$220,500	45.7%
Knoxville, TN	$127,000	4.7%
Kokomo, IN	$100,300	7.7%
La Crosse, WI-MN	$129,700	14.4%
Lafayette, IN	$114,000	-11.0%
Lafayette, LA	$115,600	-0.4%
Lake-Kenosha, IL-WI	$256,200	9.7%
Lakeland, FL	$137,200	37.2%
Lancaster, PA	$174,700	13.3%
Lansing, MI	$136,600	14.7%
Las Cruces, NM	$112,500	5.0%
Las Vegas, NV	$282,600	41.8%
Lawrence, KS	$155,200	-2.0%
Lebanon, PA	$130,400	1.6%
Lexington, KY	$139,400	2.4%
Lima, OH	$105,000	8.2%
Lincoln, NE	$127,200	-4.6%
Little Rock, AR	$105,600	-4.9%
Logan, UT-ID	$152,700	3.1%
Longview, TX	$83,500	-11.7%
Longview, WA	$178,500	35.7%
Los Angeles, CA	$499,300	61.3%
Louisville, KY-IN	$127,200	1.7%
Lubbock, TX	$82,200	-8.7%
Lynchburg, VA	$133,500	8.4%
Macon, GA	$100,000	-6.6%
Madera, CA	$301,600	72.5%
Madison, WI	$199,000	11.3%
Manchester-Nashua, NH	$241,400	21.0%
Mansfield, OH	$111,000	10.8%
McAllen, TX	$58,400	-12.9%
Medford, OR	$276,000	66.4%
Memphis, TN-MS-AR	$108,000	-10.1%
Merced, CA	$291,300	77.0%
Miami, FL	$277,700	64.4%
Michigan City, IN	$118,800	10.6%
Midland, TX	$92,900	-13.6%
Milwaukee, WI	$191,000	16.0%
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI	$223,000	21.3%
Mobile, AL	$101,100	3.1%
Modesto, CA	$323,200	68.6%
Monroe, LA	$88,300	-10.6%
Monroe, MI	$157,000	21.2%
Montgomery, AL	$104,500	-9.9%
Mount Vernon, WA	$261,400	45.1%
Muskegon, MI	$104,600	9.8%
Myrtle Beach, SC	$148,500	25.4%
Napa, CA	$541,600	65.3%
Naples, FL	$383,000	102.6%
Nashville, TN	$158,500	0.0%
Nassau-Suffolk, NY	$433,200	43.9%
New Haven, CT	$260,400	13.8%
New Orleans, LA	$146,700	-12.4%
New York-White Plains, NY-NJ	$466,700	26.1%
Newark, NJ-PA	$381,900	27.2%
Niles-Benton Harbor, MI	$127,100	14.7%
Norwich-New London, CT	$250,700	16.5%
Oakland, CA	$566,500	47.4%
Ocala, FL	$140,600	46.6%
Ocean City, NJ	$310,100	54.6%
Odessa, TX	$57,800	-11.8%
Ogden, UT	$168,500	0.7%
Oklahoma City, OK	$101,300	-6.6%
Olympia, WA	$236,100	38.9%
Omaha, NE-IA	$122,900	-5.3%
Orlando, FL	$208,500	40.2%
Oshkosh, WI	$125,400	0.0%
Owensboro, KY	$88,300	-7.1%
Oxnard-Ventura, CA	$555,300	52.6%
Palm Bay-Melbourne, FL	$212,000	54.0%
Panama City, FL	$175,000	49.8%
Pensacola, FL	$155,900	29.8%
Peoria, IL	$109,600	3.3%
Philadelphia, PA	$220,300	16.8%
Phoenix, AZ	$243,000	42.9%
Pittsburgh, PA	$111,400	-2.8%
Pittsfield, MA	$205,100	20.2%
Port St. Lucie-Fort Pierce, FL	$240,800	77.4%
Portland, ME	$218,900	27.3%
Portland, OR-WA	$268,500	41.1%
Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY	$290,800	40.9%
Prescott, AZ	$229,400	58.6%
Providence-New Bedford, RI-MA	$279,000	32.2%
Provo, UT	$190,500	11.9%
Pueblo, CO	$119,200	3.0%
Punta Gorda, FL	$210,900	73.4%
Racine, WI	$158,900	15.6%
Raleigh-Cary, NC	$173,100	0.2%
Reading, PA	$162,200	14.5%
Redding, CA	$272,000	68.4%
Reno, NV	$319,900	48.6%
Richmond, VA	$185,400	17.1%
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA	$332,300	68.7%
Roanoke, VA	$145,700	8.4%
Rochester, MN	$144,800	0.2%
Rochester, NY	$114,800	-9.1%
Rockford, IL	$122,600	15.1%
Rockingham-Strafford, NH	$252,200	19.6%
Rocky Mount, NC	$90,900	-6.7%
Sacramento, CA	$372,200	53.6%
Saginaw, MI	$102,400	15.1%
Salem, OR	$187,400	26.5%
Salinas, CA	$608,600	79.1%
Salt Lake City, UT	$211,100	8.0%
San Angelo, TX	$80,700	-7.1%
San Antonio, TX	$98,800	-11.4%
San Diego, CA	$478,300	38.6%
San Francisco, CA	$779,700	40.8%
San Jose, CA	$683,900	44.3%
San Luis Obispo, CA	$494,000	56.5%
Sandusky, OH	$127,800	-1.3%
Santa Ana-Anaheim, CA	$604,300	42.6%
Santa Barbara, CA	$629,600	73.0%
Santa Cruz, CA	$658,900	53.8%
Santa Fe, NM	$267,900	21.7%
Santa Rosa, CA	$523,700	52.0%
Sarasota, FL	$249,000	64.4%
Savannah, GA	$144,300	22.2%
Scranton, PA	$119,500	3.7%
Seattle, WA	$344,700	34.1%
Sheboygan, WI	$139,000	4.7%
Sherman, TX	$82,000	-3.6%
Shreveport, LA	$95,700	-12.7%
Sioux Falls, SD	$120,400	-3.3%
South Bend, IN-MI	$107,700	-4.3%
Spartanburg, SC	$98,100	-0.9%
Spokane, WA	$171,700	23.2%
Springfield, IL	$103,700	-1.2%
Springfield, MA	$210,900	19.9%
Springfield, MO	$113,600	-4.6%
Springfield, OH	$108,100	5.2%
St. Cloud, MN	$155,200	19.0%
St. George, UT	$239,200	52.5%
St. Joseph, MO-KS	$96,500	2.4%
St. Louis, MO-IL	$140,100	9.1%
Stockton, CA	$344,600	74.9%
Syracuse, NY	$114,100	-2.2%
Tacoma, WA	$249,200	31.9%
Tallahassee, FL	$155,800	22.5%
Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL	$178,000	36.1%
Toledo, OH	$117,800	8.7%
Topeka, KS	$101,800	-0.5%
Trenton, NJ	$276,100	15.4%
Tucson, AZ	$193,200	36.1%
Tulsa, OK	$97,800	-10.3%
Tyler, TX	$99,300	-8.7%